February 9, 2009

StarHub is slated to release its results on 10 Feb. We expect a core profit of S$75m-80m, ranging from flat growth to a 6% contraction qoq while revenue should rise 2-4% sequentially. EBITDA margins could slide 1-3%, in line with previous years, on the back of advertising and promotional expenditure. We expect another 4.5ct dividend to match the 18ct guidance for the full year. We leave our forecasts and DCF-based target price of S$2.50 intact although there could be a downward revision post-4Q results. We believe StarHub is most vulnerable to downtrading by consumers and a key overhang remains a content battle in 2009. Maintain Neutral, however, as downside should be protected by yields of 9%.

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