Results below expectations. Jasper’s results came in below consensus estimates, with 9M09’s results accounting for 64%/55% of consensus FY09F earnings forecast, mainly due to a sharp decline in operating rate of Neptune Discoverer to 29.57% in December 2008. The drop in operating rate in December 2008 was due to problems with a mooring line on the Discoverer, resulting in subsequent damage to certain subsea equipment. This incident resulted in some downtime for which the Group’s subsidiary, Neptune Marine & Drilling Pte. Ltd (“NMD”) claimed standby rates from Oetrikeis de Venezuela SA (“PDVSA“).
We have previously downgraded Jasper to Hold with target price of S$0.13, based on DCF valuation methodology, as we factor in risk of downward revision of day rates faced by Jasper as well as high client concentration risk given that Neptune Discoverer is the only operating drillship and PDVSA has high bargaining power over Neptune in current market condition. We are placing our rating, target price and estimates Under Review and intend to provide an update following a meeting with the management.
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