February 27, 2009

UOL's 4Q08 core net profit of S$82m forms 31% of our full-year and consensus. Despite strong development revenue, a S$128m net loss was incurred in 4Q08 as UOL wrote down S$210m on its commercial properties. Falling RevPAR and occupancies also took their toll on hotel performances. The UIC general offer may be the only thing to look forward to but even excitement on this front may be muted given the current office down-cycle. We lower our FY09-10 earnings by 18% to account for slow inventory turnover, lower rentals and lower hotel valuations. Consequently, our target price drops from S$2.02 to S$1.51, still based on a 50% discount to a lowered RNAV of S$3.02. Our new target implies 0.35x P/BV vs. 0.4x currently and a trough P/BV of 0.25x. We believe a bottom is not far off but maintain Underperform on limited re-rating catalysts in the near term.

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