Sector news a positive… The recent news of two successful S-REIT refinancings bodes well for Suntec REIT (Suntec). Office-focused CapitaCommercial Trust has secured a 3-year term loan facility to refinance some S$580m due in March '09, while Cambridge Industrial Trust has refinanced S$390.1m of loans. Some S$3.4b of S-REIT debt is still due for refinancing in the next 9 months but the news is overall a positive signal - especially that of Cambridge, a smaller and non-sponsored S-REIT, which was perceived as relatively higher risk. Please see our sector report out today for more details.

Waiting for the same from Suntec. Suntec has about S$825m of debt, or about 40% of its total borrowings, up for refinancing in the next 12 months. This is a lengthy process - we understand Suntec began talking to lenders late last year - and both the S-REITs mentioned here only announced done deals about two months prior to debt expiry. However, the sooner Suntec can clear this overhang, which is weighing down valuations, the better. Its cost of debt is likely to increase from the last reported all-in cost of 3.2%. The REIT is currently leveraged at 0.32x debt- to-assets.

Income outlook still bleak. Recent news reports suggest office rents fell 15-20% in 4Q CY081 . Suntec REIT, which will likely release FY08 results next week, should also register a decline in achieved rentals, in our view. The REIT will see almost 70% of its office portfolio ex One Raffles Quay up for renewal in the next two years. We are projecting Suntec City office rental rates to tumble down to single digits this year. We also expect vacancy rates to be on the rise. We estimate the average passing rent at Suntec City Office is currently in the S$6.50 ballpark, comfortably below our fairly bleak reversionary rent expectations for the next two years. On the retail side, we have priced in a conservative 8-10% per annum decline in Suntec City Mall rentals over the next two years.

Maintaining BUY. Our RNAV estimate of S$1.05 prices in a 38% decline in asset values. Our fair value estimate for Suntec is S$0.90, at a 15% discount to our RNAV estimate. We expect (non-cash) revaluation losses going forward, which could potentially stress the REIT's tolerance for gearing. We believe our valuation reflects the risk of an equity recapitalization (which is not necessary, but possible). Suntec has seen a 21.5% increase in share price since our last report. Maintain BUY.