May 14, 2009

On a quarter-on-quarter basis, gross revenue for 1QFY09 was flat at $18.4 million (+4.5% y-o-y), net property income increased 6.6% to $16.1 million(+3.2% y-o-y), distributable income decreased 5.5% to $10.3 million(- 18.2% y-o-y). DPU for the quarter is 1.291 cents.

CIT’s gross revenue for 1QFY09 registered flat growth, which was in-line with expectations, given there wasn’t any catalyst to earnings. Portfolio occupancy remains at a high 99.2%. However distributable income fell 5.5% and DPU fell 6.0% mainly due to higher interest expense incurred on the new loan.

CIT refinanced its loan in Feb 2009 and has no refinancing worries for the next three years. The refinancing comes at substantially higher interest of 5.9% and is the main reason for the decrease in DPU. Our previous estimate was an interest cost of 5.0%. Current gearing is 39.9%.

Without the overhang of refinancing worry, the only concern is whether CIT can maintain its portfolio occupancy. We continue to assume a portfolio vacancy of 3%. Revenue growth is supported by fixed rental escalation built into leases. We tweaked our assumptions to account for lower property expenses due to government rebates and also higher interest expenses vs our previous assumptions. CIT is currently trading at 60% discount to NAV. We have a forecasted FY09F DPU of 4.73 cents, which translates to 16.6% dividend yield. We apply WACC of 11.4% and terminal growth of 1% to our DCF valuation. Fair value is raised from $0.27 to $0.31. We maintain our HOLD recommendation.

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