May 25, 2009

Yongnam's 1Q09 net profit of S$9.9m (+104% yoy) was 2.6% above our annualised estimate and 11% above consensus, constituting 26% of our FY09 forecast. Yongnam should remain busy with an order book of S$517m as at end-Mar 09. We raise our net profit forecasts for FY09-11 by 5-16% to reflect strong the order-book growth, given the Singapore government's aggressive infrastructure spending. With receding risk aversion, we switch our valuation methodology to P/E from P/BV. We peg a 10x CY10 P/E target, at the low end of Yongnam's mid-cycle multiples, and translating to a new target price of S$0.28 (previously S$0.12, 0.8x CY09 P/BV).

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