Golden Agri-Resouces (GAR) has made very impressive gains since our last report, rising 44% in just over a month, easily trumping the STI's 11% return over the same period. Two main reasons were behind its superlative outperformance - 1) the recent rally in crude palm oil (CPO) prices and 2) GAR was among one of the most battered plantation stocks prior to the rally. However, as further upside for CPO prices may be capped by the still-bleak global economic outlook, we believe it is prudent to maintain our CPO assumption at US$500/ton for 2009, hence keeping our estimates unchanged. And as our fair value of S$0.30 (based on 6x FY09F PER) has already been met, we downgrade our rating to HOLD, purely on valuation grounds.
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