December 16, 2008

Telstra said it has been excluded by the Commonwealth from Australia's national broadband network (NBN) RFP because it did not include a plan on how to involve small and medium enterprises in the building of the NBN. With Telstra out of the NBN race, Optus's odds of winning may be elevated as it is now the largest bidder, both in terms of network and balance sheet. We reiterate our view that we would be negative on Optus if it wins the bid give the questionable economics of the NBN, and the funding which may sap SingTel's cash. Also, Telstra holds the cost and infrastructure advantage and may build out its own network to compete with the NBN. Maintain forecasts, NEUTRAL rating and sum-of-the-parts target price of S$2.72. We believe SingTel lacks catalysts due to currency volatility despite its holdings in free cash flow-positive Tier-1 telcos in the region.

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