We believe the share price will fall in absolute terms over the next 45 days.

This is because the stock has traded up recently, making short term valuation much less compelling. The market hasover-reacted, expecting a huge positive impact on the company with the recent supportive policy shift on the Chinaproperty sector based on the last State Council Executive Meeting. Out of the policies announced, the potential positiveimpact will be from the preferential mortgage terms extended to second home purchases and the shortening holdingperiod requirement for business tax for 5 to 2 years with the tax now on the gain rather than on the transaction value. WhileCapitaLand has 18% of its NAV exposure to China, it has zero exposure to the low cost housing sector in China and 12%exposure to China commercial assets and the remainder in the mid-high end segment. Our China property team believesit is still too early to call for a physical market recovery in China.

We estimate that there is about a 70% to 80% or "very likely" probability for the scenario.Estimated probabilities are illustrative and assigned subjectively based on our assessment of the likelihood of thescenario.