August 4, 2009

IRs, it's more than what you think. The IRs is estimated to add 1.5% to Singapore's GDP, creating 60,000 direct and spin-off jobs in the process. The ripple effect from these two iconic developments is expected to be far reaching, ranging from gaming, hospitality, property to service providers such as retail, media and transport operators.

US$3b in new gaming revenue, 43% surge in hotel industry revenue 25% RevPAR spike. Once operational, Singapore casino revenue is expected to leapfrog to the third place in Asia, ahead of Malaysia and South Korea. Industry-wide hotel revenue to surge 43% to c$2b on the back of a 20% hike in tourist arrivals to 10.5-11m in 2010, accompanied by a 25% jump in RevPar. We see a return of pricing power for hotel operators in the coming year. We hold to our contrarian view that the new supply will be more than well absorbed by increased demand.

Key Buy calls. We have identified numerous listed entities that could potentially benefit from the IR effect. Apart from the gaming-related companies and hotel operators, we see opportunities for players in the retail, F&B, entertainment, office and exhibition accessories supply, media and land transport sectors. Not forgetting real estate developers and investors who will benefit from the increased visibility of Singapore. Our top buys are Genting Singapore and CDL HT for their direct leverage into the IR. We see more upside for ART, City Dev, Ho Bee, Suntec and CMT who will enjoy the spillover rewards due to their proximity to the IRs. Notwithstanding the relatively smaller impact of additional adex spend from the IRs, we also like SPH for its dominant position in the print advertising medium. Its ownership of Paragon offers exposure to the prime Orchard Rd shopping belt.

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