November 26, 2008

Post 3Q08, we revisit our assumptions on ComfortDelGro arising from:(i) lower crude oil price; (ii) its A$149m acquisition of Kefford Group inVictoria, Australia (iii) changes to our forex assumptions (GBP and AUD,against SGD).

1. Crude oil price assumption lowered to US$60/bbl and US$70/bbl in2009-10, from US$80/bbl. The net positive change is S$38.5m and S$21.8m.

2. Kefford Group acquisition. The A$149m acquisition was announced on 20Nov. Our estimate of the net profit contribution to CDG is S$5.7m in FY09and S$5.9m in FY10. We view this acquisition as positive and are in linewith the Group’s strategy to achieve 70% revenue contribution from overseasby 2012. Its existing operational experience in Australia reduces operatingrisks for this venture, in our view.

3. Lower forex assumption. We revised our GBP and AUD (against SGD) downto S$2.30/GBP and S$0.98/AUD. These change our forecast by -S$41.5m and-S$45.5m for FY09F and FY10F respectively.The net impact is minimal on our FY09F earnings but our FY10F has beentrimmed down by 8%, largely due to a smaller revision in oil price (toUS$70/bbl vs US$60 for ‘09F).

Singapore bus/train ridership remain robust. Bus and train (NEL) ridershipgrew 4% and 16% y-o-y in Oct. YTD, ridership growth of 6% (bus) and 16%(train) is in line with our FY08F assumption.

Despite the downturn, we believe the Group’s business will berelatively less affected given its exposure in the public transport. Wealso like CDG for its strong balance sheet and healthy operating cashflow.Maintain Buy. Our TP is maintained at S$1.59, still pegged to 15x on FY09F.

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